Predictions are hard, but here’s some of what I’m watching this year.
First, ICYMI – 2026 Eduwonk In and Out list here. Holiday books list here if you still want reading ideas. Bonus one that didn’t make the list, still reading, is Hotshot: A Life on Fire. If you enjoyed books like Educated or Welcome to the Goddamn Ice Cube, both on the 2018 list, then you might like this.
2026 Eduwonk word of the year: Variance. Expect variance across the board, high variance. In education we’re embracing variance with ideas like ESAs or more flexibility for states around federal dollars and rules. That will work out well in some places, not so well in others. You might not like RFK’s vaccine policies, but the new food pyramid is pretty good and a rebuke to industry food lobbying many thought they’d never see. Expect high variance across the board at such a transitory time.
The 2026 midterms won’t be about education. Midterms generally are a referendum on the incumbent and, more recently, structural issues around polarization and redistricting. But expect education to emerge in the 2028 national conversation among Democrats. Smart Dems know the party’s interest-group-driven approach is a liability; expect new ideas. Rahm Emanuel is an early mover here, but keep an eye out for others.
A country can have a low birthrate, low rates of immigration, but it can’t have both and remain economically robust (personally, I’m for rejecting the choice and embracing both family-encouraging policies and robust managed immigration). But the current approach we’re taking by default and active choice has all sorts of economic implications. It also matters for schools. Fewer kids along with more parents frustrated and choosing alternatives to the public schools and pre-existing financial pressure = Not great! Expect more attention to consolidation, closures, and tough decisions that matter to the future of the public education sector (this will also affect the for-and non-profit sectors in education as well, contact me if you want to learn more about BW’s M&A work).
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Ed tech will continue to emerge as a flashpoint. The debate about AI, technology, and kids is not going to break cleanly left/right or red/blue. Australia’s play—a social media ban for young people—is being watched and proposed here.
Bill Gates thinks AI will supplant teachers. I wouldn’t bet on it. That prediction is likely to join the pile of similar ones by everyone from Thomas Edison to Hyman Rickover and Steve Jobs. The realization that AI might matter more to administration, management, and support than to actual instruction seems to be growing. Watch that space. The use cases—special education paperwork, assistants for teachers, efficiency and data—are compelling. More compelling than the idea that Sam Altman will just teach the kids. One proof point for this? Ed tech 1.0 and how it impacted the sector in ways outside the classroom.
You can check out BW’s work on AI here.
Civics will be a 2026 flashpoint. It’s A250, and President Trump plans to celebrate it as the founders almost certainly envisioned, with MMA fights and other neo-Roman gladiatorial spectacles, nationalism, divisive and coercive issues, and the like…. Civics is pretty divisive in K–12 schools, with too many folks who think schools aren’t doing their job if they don’t produce little proto-revolutionaries or, conversely, reflexive nationalists.
WCAG. Based on my surveying of industry leaders and state officials, you probably haven’t heard of WCAG. You will. It’s a set of regulations around web accessibility for people with vision needs. Sensible stuff to ensure access, and that matters in public sector activities—including education—where broad access is essential. New rules go into effect this spring. States are all over the place on compliance. How the new regulations will be enforced is something of an open question as well. On the one hand, the division at the Department of Justice that oversees it is now mostly a ghost town, and remaining staff are focused elsewhere (and at the White House the Trump team is trying to get rid of ASL interpreters, so this is not exactly a pro-accommodations crowd). There is also, however, the possibility of frivolous lawsuits that could discredit the new regulations. Colorado offers an example of a productive enforcement model. Sleeper issue to keep an eye on.
Trump tuition scholarships. The Trump tuition scholarships that were included in last year’s tax bill are a devilishly clever policy that will have the dual effect of supporting more school choice while splitting Democrats. It’s a dollar for dollar $1700 tax credit regardless of whether the state where you live participates. If Democrat-led states, which often have more affluent taxpayers, opt in, then leaders there piss off teachers’ unions and other adult groups. If they don’t participate, then they have to explain why they are leaving what could be a lot of money on the table. Already, Dem governors are staking out different positions, and there is a testy debate behind the scenes about the best path forward. And the policy isn’t even finalized yet! Regs come later this year. At issue is how broad usage of the funds will be and how much scholarship-granting organizations could fund public school-facing activities.
Here’s the thing: This is more like casino gambling than an education policy in terms of policy diffusion. You have a lot of governors who don’t love gambling, but like their citizens putting tax dollars in the coffers of neighboring states even less. Former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell notably gave voice to this sentiment. The tax credit policy seems likely to spread because it will be hard to stay out over time (just as we’ve seen with gambling), especially if the regs allow programs that benefit public school students.
Did you think the religious charter school issue was dead after the Supreme Court deadlocked 4–4? Nope. The stakes are too high. Keep an eye on this TN case, and there will be more.
It’ll be a challenging year. Wishing you well.
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